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We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect and we can't see the future - our goal is merely to help you make the most informed entries you can.
**We recommend picking two or three players and selecting the Flex play option to hedge your bets if one game doesn't go the way you expect.**
Week 12 - Our Sunday Slate Picks
Justin Herbert vs Buffalo - 23 - OVER (Jared)
Herbert has been remarkably consistent for a rookie QB - he’s been between 20 and 28 fantasy points in seven of his nine starts, with one low outlier (13 vs Carolina) and one high outlier (38 against the Jaguars). Most people expect this game to be a relative shootout with Sunday’s second-highest total points line, and we agree. Austin Ekeler is probably still a week away from returning to the field, and LA’s backfield is still too dinged up to rely much on the run game, so we’d expect Herbert to do most of the heavy lifting to keep up with the fast-paced Bills offense.
Nick Chubb @ Jacksonville - 16 - OVER (Trent)
Chubb has played lights out in his first two starts coming back from injury. He's averaged 19.5 carries, and he's put up well over 100 yards in both contests. He has been over 100 yards in 4 of his 6 games, and he has 5 TD's on the year. We love the matchup vs. Jacksonville (allowing the 6th most fantasy points to RB's) this week, and we think the Browns will stick to their ground and pound strategy!
AJ Brown @ Indianapolis - 13.8 - OVER (Jared)
Brown has been on a touchdown streak, hitting the end zone seven times in his last seven games. The only game in there without a TD: his last meeting with Indy, where he was held to one catch for 21 yards. The big difference this time around is that the Colts star interior defensive lineman DeForest Buckner is on the COVID list, and we think that will have a major impact on the Indy pass rush. If Ryan Tannehill can go over the 15/27 for 147 passing line he put up in that week 10 matchup (he should) then Brown will be the biggest beneficiary outside of you and me, who will profit off of this artificially low line.
Michael Pittman vs Tennessee - 11.5 - OVER (Trent)
Pittman has emerged as the #1 WR on the Colts. He's been well over 11.5 ppr points in his last two games, putting up a combined 10 catches for 167 yards and a TD. Rivers is putting his trust in him, and Pittman is proving it! The last time Pittman faced Tennessee in week 10, he put up 7 catches for 101 yards, which was good for 15.7 points.
Matt Ryan vs Las Vegas - 20.5 - UNDER (Jared)
This game has one of the week’s higher lines, but we’ve got our doubts that it’s guaranteed to be the 54-point shootout it’s being framed as. The key for Matt Ryan is the health of Julio Jones. In the four games Julio has missed all or most of, Ryan has been a completely different fantasy player, averaging single-digit fantasy points and never scoring more than 12.4 in a week. Julio is questionable, and if he’s out, the odds are that Ryan dips well below 20.5. The other factor is game-script - Las Vegas can slow the game down and grind it out on the ground when they want to. Take a look at week 10, when the Raiders RBs combined for 37 carries and kept the ball away from the Broncos offense. The injury to Todd Gurley adds just one more question mark to the heap for Ryan, and everything combined makes us feel pretty good taking the under. If you're making this pick close to game-time, check in on Julio's status, because if he's playing, this under pick gets a little more shaky.
Frank Gore vs Miami - 9.5 - UNDER (Trent)
For some reason, people are actually getting excited about Frank Gore this week - but we aren't buying in. Yes, Miami isn't great against the run. Yes, Gore did have 15 carries for 61 yards and a TD last week. But did you know that TD was his first TD in the last 22 games as a Jets RB? Gore has only been over 9.5 points in 1 game in the last 21 games, and that was due to this fluky TD. We aren't banking on lightning striking twice. UNDER on Gore.
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