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We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect and we can't see the future - our goal is merely to help you make the most informed entries you can.
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Week 13- Our Sunday Slate Picks
*Reminder - points are in PPR format!
Antonio Gibson vs Pittsburgh - 13 - OVER (Trent)
If you've been following our Prize Picks blog - then you know the one thing that is a guarantee, is that every week I'm taking Gibson over! I'll probably smash them over every week until it burns me. Could this week be that week? Sure. He has a tough matchup vs the Steelers who rank #3 against the run, so there's a chance Gibson gets shut down. I'll take my chances though. Gibson is the RB5 on the season, he's scored 8 TD's in the last 5 weeks, and he is getting more and more work in the passing game each week (7 targets last week).
Brandon Aiyuk vs BUF - 12 points - OVER (Jared)
The Bills started the season off pretty strong, but have been torched through the air the past few weeks. The 49ers skill players should produce, and we especially like Aiyuk’s 12-point line compared to Deebo Samuel’s 14-point line. Last week in particular, Buffalo really struggled to contain the dynamic Austin Ekeler in the receiving game. We see Aiyuk (and Samuel) being used in a similar way, with a mix of carries and short completions designed to set up yards after the catch. Aiyuk has been awesome in that role: in fact, he’s been over 12 points in his last three games. As an added bonus, Samuel is more likely to draw the coverage of star cornerback Tredavious White, which would open things up even more for Aiyuk.
Raheem Mostert - 12 - OVER (Trent)
Mostert is back! He was under this mark last week, but that was against one of the toughest run defenses around (Rams). This week he's got a decent matchup vs the Bills who are giving up an average of 129 rushing yards per game. Mostert should get around 15 attempts, and get some RedZone looks as well. We're taking the over!
Josh Allen @ SF - 22.5 points - UNDER (Jared)
The matchup is deceptive here. San Francisco is middle-of-the-pack in yearlong fantasy points given up to the QB position - but that includes a run in the middle of the year when San Fran lost a ridiculous portion of their roster to injuries and COVID and had to face Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers with what was effectively a roster of backups. Since they’ve gotten healthy the past two weeks, they’ve held Drew Brees to just 6 fantasy points and Jared Goff to just 4. Allen is a great fantasy producer, but this line is too high in a tough road matchup halfway across the country.
Benny Snell - 11 - UNDER (Jared)
UNDER (Jared) 11 is such a tantalizing line for a running back who should get lead-back type work. But the Steelers have tended to abandon the run this season, preferring the quick, short-passing game with their incredible receiving group. The Washington defense (6th-toughest in the NFL in terms of fantasy points given up to the RB position) could encourage Pittsburgh to once again ignore the run with their starter (James Connor) out. And if there's even a small chance that Pittsburgh chooses to run rookie Anthony McFarland more this week, it cuts into Snell's volume enough to keep him under 11.
So what do you think? Agree with some of our takes, and disagree with others? Enter YOUR picks on Prize Picks today!
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