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Week 14 - Sunday Slate
*Reminder - points are in PPR format!
We've got a surprising number of overs this week - that's not usual for us. But this Sunday's slate also has most of the NFL's porous defenses playing, so the usually-restrained HQ recommendations are looking much more optimistic this week.
Kenyan Drake vs NYG - 12 points - OVER (Trent)
I am a Kenyan Drake truther, and I was pretty excited to see his line down at 12 this week. Drake has been over 12 points in 3 of his last 4 games. In those 4 games, he's scored 4 TDs, and has averaged 4 targets which really helps lift his PPR floor. They love him in the redzone, and with Kyler a bit hampered by injury, Drake's redzone opportunities should continue to be there against a Giants defense that isn't great against the run. He has been a bit limited by injuries this week (so that's something to monitor)...but this season when he has returned to the lineup after an injury, we have never seen his snap count affected.
A.J. Brown vs JAX - 15.5 points - OVER (Jared)
In ten games this season, A.J. Brown has gone over 15.5 points six times. This should also be the easiest matchup he’s faced all year, at least based on fantasy points allowed to WRs, where Jacksonville is the 5th-easiest matchup in the league. Here are the top WR scores against the Jags the past four weeks: Justin Jefferson (27), Adam Thielen (21), Jarvis Landry (28), Diontae Johnson (23), Chase Claypool (15), Davante Adams (17), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (24). Brown has to be a smash play this week at 15.5. The only real risk is that Tennessee gets ahead and goes super run-heavy. But being run-focused hasn’t really scripted out Brown at any point this year, so take this pick with confidence. *on a side note...if you sign up for PrizePicks with our code FantasyHQ, you will be pre-entered into our next jersey giveaway (hint, hint - it's a signed AJ Brown jersey!)
Amari Cooper vs CIN - 14 points - OVER (Trent)
Amari Cooper is kind of the forgotten man in Fantasy Football this year. Most seasons we are frustrated with how up and down Cooper is...but this year it has been the opposite. He's been silently reliable as the WR13 on the season, averaging 16.1 points per game. He seems to be Dalton's go-to target, averaging 8 targets over the last 3 weeks. I expect Cooper to continue his streak of games over 14 points (currently 3 in a row), vs. a weak Cincinnati secondary.
Dalvin Cook vs TB - 21 points - UNDER (Jared)
This is a classic case of my go-to formula on these picks: a stud player in a bad matchup with a high line. Cook is an elite player. He’s also got little to no competition for carries with his primary backup Alexander Mattison out. But 21 is a high line that even the great Cook has only crossed in 7 of 12 games so far. Tampa Bay is by far the toughest defense Cook has faced - the Bucs haven’t given up more than 90 rushing yards to any RB group all year. They also haven’t given up 2 TDs to a RB since they faced Christian McCaffrey back in week 2 - and even then, they held CMC to just 60 yards. Cook certainly has the ability to go over this line even in a tough matchup. But the odds are definitely against him this week.
Justin Jefferson vs TB - 16.5 points - OVER (Trent)
Homer pick here...as we are Vikings fans, but we took the under on Cook - so it's okay! Over the last 4 weeks, Justin Jefferson is averaging 10 targets, 103 yards, and 1 TD per game (23.6 points per game). This week the Vikings are going to need to get it done through the air, so you can expect a lot of targets for Jefferson. Dean, the Bucs CB2, is questionable for the game, so the Bucs secondary will be a little more penetrable than a typical week!
Mike Gesicki vs KC - 10.5 points - OVER (Jared)
Gesicki very much falls into the category of a boom-or-bust tight end, and those guys are the hardest to project. The big factor for us here: Gesicki got 11 targets from QB Tua Tagovailoa last week against the Bengals. A tight end would usually need a TD to hit double digits, but if Gesicki gets peppered with that kind of target share again, he could go over 10.5 even without a TD. Then again, he’s scored in two straight games, and the Dolphins offense seems to like fade-type routes to their big targets in the red zone right now, so the odds are at least decent that Gesicki gets into the end zone, too.
Philip Rivers vs LV - 19.5 points - UNDER (Trent)
Rivers has only been above this mark in 3 out of 12 games this year, and even in those games, he's only put up 22.5, 22.2, and 25.7 points. The Raiders are so up and down this year that their defense is hard to predict...but for the most part, they've only allowed rushing QB's to put up more than 20 points this year. Philip Rivers is currently at 15 rushing attempts for -5 yards - so I'm not terribly worried.
Matt Ryan vs LAC - 21 points - UNDER (Jared)
JULIO JONES IS OUT THIS WEEK. That’s a massive headline for Matt Ryan’s fantasy value. In seven games this year with Julio playing more than 75% of the offensive snaps, Ryan has averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game. In five games this year without Julio (three games with an inactive Julio and the two where the talented WR got hurt and played less than 40% of snaps), Ryan is averaging just 10.7 fantasy points per game. That’s an absurd disparity. The matchup with the Chargers is enticing, but Ryan just hasn’t proven it without his top target this year and 21 is still a very high line.
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