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We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect and we can't see the future - our goal is merely to help you make the most informed entries you can.
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Week 14 - Thursday Night Matchup
*Reminder - points are in PPR format!
The Rams defense has been absolutely dominant lately. The Patriots always-stout defense is coming off of a shutout last week. With both teams on a short week, we're expecting a slower-paced, grind-it-out type of game that's leading to a lot of UNDERS:
Cam Newton @ LAR - 18 points - UNDER (Trent)
If you only looked at fantasy point stat lines, and didn’t watch Cam Newton live, you might think he’s having a decent season. The fact of the matter is that Cam has been under 100 yards passing (yes, 100) in the last 2 games. He only has 3 games with over 200 yards passing, and he only has 5 passing TDs on the year. Newton is getting bailed out by his rushing upside averaging 1 rushing TD per game. This week he goes up against a killer Rams defense that is top 3 in almost every category. I’m expecting this to be an ugly game, and the only way cam hits the over is if he can get past Aaron Donald for 2 rushing TDs.
Jakobi Meyers @ LAR - 10.5 points - UNDER (Jared)
Or
Damiere Byrd @ LAR - 8.5 points - UNDER (Jared)
The Rams have suffocated opposing passing games this season. They're the toughest matchup to both fantasy QBs and WRs, and they're giving up just 16 fantasy points a week to the entire opposing WR corps. This Patriots WR group is definitely not above average, so there's a good chance we see all New England receivers held to dismal lines. We include both Meyers and Byrd here because we feel equally strong about the under on both lines. Those Rams defense stats suggest both could very well be under. But you probably don't want to take both in the same entry - that'll get really game-script dependent and could burn you if the game is higher-scoring than anticipated.
Jared Goff vs. NE - 19.2 points - UNDER (Trent)
Goff has been up and down all season. He’s been over 19.2 in 5/12 games, which isn’t bad! I’m just predicting an ugly game on Thursday night that is a low scoring defensive battle. The Patriots have a solid defense and a great cornerback duo, so it’s not going to be easy for Goff to put up 350 yards in this game.
James White @ LAR - 8 points - OVER (Jared)
Where the Rams have been the best in football against QBs and WRs, they've only been really, really good against RBs (4th-best in the NFL). But White is a pass-catching specialist, and an 8-point line in full-PPR means he really only needs 4 catches for 40 yards to crack the over. White had scored 14 in two-straight games prior to last week, and his relatively low usage last week was entirely a product of New England blowing out the Chargers and leaning on its power runners. We expect this game to be much closer - if anything, it'll be the Patriots playing catch-up to the Rams - and that should keep White very much involved in the gameplan.
Cam Akers vs NE - 11 points - UNDER (Jared) & OVER (Trent)
Occasionally, we'll profile a pick we're split on, to give you the best arguments on either side.
UNDER (Jared) - My concern with Akers is that he's battling a shoulder injury on a short week. Sometimes, that can lead a team to cap that player's workload, especially when the team (a) is in the playoff hunt, (b) has other reliable options, and (c) is favored to win this week. All three of those are true of the Rams this week, so I'm wary of banking on a high snap or carry count for Akers this week.
OVER (Trent) - Maybe I’m just so excited that Cam Akers is finally taking over the starting job in LAR that I’m overlooking the difficult matchup...but I’m taking the over! Akers had 21 carries last week, and looked great! 11 is a fairly low line for any bell cow RB, and I think as long as Akers keeps the role, he’s got a good shot at the over. I’m probably not personally entering him into any prize picks lineups though.
So what do you think? Agree with some of our takes, and disagree with others? Enter YOUR picks on Prize Picks today!
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