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Entries are so simple, they can be made in less than 60 seconds. On PrizePicks, you simply select 2, 3, 4, or 5 players and predict if they will go over or under their fantasy projection.
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We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect and we can't see the future - our goal is merely to help you make the most informed entries you can.
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Week 15 - Monday Night Matchup
*Reminder - points are in PPR format!
Game Preview
The 11-2 Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to windy Cincinnati to take 2-10-1 Bengals. These two met up in week 10 where the Steelers pummeled the Bengals 36-10. Things have gotten even worse for the Bengals since Week 10, as they have lost quarterback Joe Burrow and backup Brandon Allen.
As of publication time, the total points line for this game is set at 40, meaning the game is expected to be a very low-scoring game overall.
The Steelers are 14-point favorites on the road, which would set an implied point total of about 27 for the Raiders and 13 for the Bengals.
In their last matchup, Big Ben tore apart the Bengals secondary, throwing for 33 yards and 4 TDs. The ball was spread out between all 3 Steelers WRs (Smith-Schuster - 18.2 pts, Johnson - 20.6 pts, & Claypool - 19.3 pts).
Gio Bernard vs PIT - 7.5 points - UNDER (Trent)
Last week, Gio Bernard fumbled on one of his first carries and was benched the rest of the game. 3rd string RB Trayveon Williams didn't look terrible when he took over, and I think we could see him on the field more than Bernard again tonight. Gio doesn't have a TD since week 8, and he hasn't been over this 7.5 line since Burrow's been out. I think he only hits this line if he turns out to be Finley's safety blanket with 5+ targets.
Ryan Finley vs PIT - 10 points - UNDER
This is a laughably low line for a QB… and yet we’re still taking the under. Finley started three games last year, putting up fantasy point totals of 8.8, 5.3 and 8.4. He’s almost-certainly improved from when he was a rookie fourth-round pick with a rookie head coach. But basically every factor is still against him: it’s a brutal matchup against the second-toughest defense vs fantasy QBs. It’s an outdoor game with expected 10-12 mph winds - not conducive to the passing game. And Finley is without top running back Joe Mixon. All signs point to the under here, and if Finley manages a miraculously productive game, we’re willing to take the “L” on that incredibly improbable scenario.
Tyler Boyd vs PIT - 11.5 points - UNDER
When the QB is potentially scoring single-digit fantasy points, the ceiling really drops for all receivers. Boyd has been a rock-solid floor play most of the year, with a steady stream of 6+ targets. But Pittsburgh is an aggressive defense that is usually pretty good at shutting down the run and the short passing game. In the last meeting of these two teams, Boyd scored just 10.1 points, and that was with Joe Burrow at QB. Even if the Bengals manage to move the ball, we think it’ll be through more of their big-play threats and matchup-beaters.
Austin Seibert vs PIT - 6 points - UNDER (Trent)
If you know anything about Fantasy HQ - you know that we don't ever play kickers! Not in regular fantasy, and not in daily fantasy. Quite frankly, kickers are just far too hard to predict, and much more random. Today, for the first time ever...I am actually writing about a kicker. 6 is a very low line, but I don't think Cincinnati spends enough time in the RedZone for Seibert to see much action. UNDER on my first kicker pick ever!
Lower confidence picks...
Monday night makes for tougher picking. There are fewer options to choose from, and with just one game, your picks can become really dependent on accurately predicting how the game goes. These two picks are far from smash plays… but there’s enough of an argument that we’re going to include them so you can make your own determination if you want to add one more piece to a flex play.
Tee Higgins vs PIT - 10 points - OVER
The Steelers are the second-toughest defense against fantasy QBs and RBs, and the toughest against fantasy TEs. The only place they’re somewhat vulnerable is against fantasy WRs, where they rank middle of the pack at 15th-easiest. That’s because Pittsburgh is a hyper-aggressive defense - good at creating pressures, sacks, and turnovers, but occasionally prone to giving up big plays, especially to players who can outrun or outmuscle single coverage when the Steelers blitz. Enter Higgins, a big, fast, downfield mismatch who put up 115 yards and a TD on seven catches against Pittsburgh five weeks ago. It’s very possible the Cincy offense grinds to an absolute halt and no one gets much volume. But if one Bengal is going to go over their projection, we think it’s Higgins on this pretty-low ten-point line. (He’s gone over ten points in nine of 13 games this year, including two of three games post-Burrow).
Chase Claypool @ CIN - 12 points - OVER (Trent)
I'm honestly okay taking any of the Steelers WR's over; honestly, this pretty much comes down to taking the over on the Steelers WR with the lowest line. Claypool has had two down weeks, and I think that has brought this projection down. In week 10, Claypool put up 19.3 points vs this defense, so 12 doesn't seem too hard to get. The fear is that it is going to be windy in Cincy, which will limit Claypool's downfield big-play upside. I get the feeling all 3 PIT WRs are going to be close to their lines...can you pick them right?
So what do you think? Agree with some of our takes, and disagree with others? Enter YOUR picks on Prize Picks today!
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