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Prize Picks is our new favorite way to play daily fantasy football! Out of the fantasy playoffs? No problem! Set a lineup or two in Prize Picks and you're back in the game! Think Gardner Minshew returns with vengeance? Pick his OVER and win real money today! In our Week 14 Sunday Slate Blog, we nailed 7/8 of our picks!
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We try to lay out a few Over/Unders that we feel good about for each slate, and encourage you to take our advice, but put your own twist on it! We aren't perfect and we can't see the future - our goal is merely to help you make the most informed entries you can.
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Week 15 - Sunday Picks
*Reminder - points are in PPR format!
Gardner Minshew ll @ BAL - 14.5 points - OVER
Gardner Minshew ll is not only one of the most mystical players in the league...but is also a reliable fantasy QB! Why on earth have the Jags been keeping him on the sidelines and letting Mike Glennon steer the ship? I'd say it's because they want the ship to be steered into an iceberg so they can draft Justin fields high next year. Minshew actually wins some games. The 14.5 line almost feels laughable to me. Minshew has been over this line in 6/8 games this season, and Baltimore isn't a terribly tough matchup for QBs. Minshew - Over is a staple in almost all of my Prize Picks this week.
Deshaun Watson @ INDY - 20.5 points - OVER
Watson is an elite fantasy QB because he can get it done through the air, or with his legs. The Colts are thought of as a tougher QB matchup, but they have let up the 3rd-most passing yards in the last four weeks. They're also potentially without star DT DeForest Buckner, and the last time Buckner missed a game (week 12), the Colts defense took a massive step back and gave up 45 points to the Titans. Houston and Indy met just two weeks ago, and Watson put up 19.44 points. That was right after Will Fuller got suspended, and Brandin Cooks was out that game as well. With Cooks back in the lineup at WR and more time for Watson to get used to his other options, I think he is a smash play for the over this week.
Dalvin Cook vs CHI - 20 points - UNDER
A stud player in a tough matchup with a high line - that's my go-to formula for an under pick. Cook had to scrape hard for 14 points against the Bears in week ten, and that took a crazy 34 touches and Chicago's elite DT Akiem Hicks leaving the game injured. Hicks is back this week and will make Cook's task tough. A 20-point line is probably going to require multiple TDs, and Cook has an uphill battle to get them. In fact, he has just 2 TDs in his last five games.
T.J. Hockensen vs TEN - 10 points - OVER
As long as Kenny Golladay remains out, Hockensen will have an elite target share for a tight end. His QB, Matt Stafford, is playing through a painful rib injury. But even if he winds up getting pulled for Chase Daniel at some point, Hockensen will remain one of the most dynamic receiving option on the field for the Lions. As long as he gets his customary 6+ targets (which he's gotten in seven of the last eight weeks), Hockensen is a smash play with a shot to go over 10 with or without a TD.
Alvin Kamara vs KC - 22 points - OVER
Drew Brees is back, and that generally means a major upticks in targets for Kamara. Mike Thomas is out, which makes Kamara easily the top playmaker on the field for the Saints. The Chiefs-Saints matchup should be a shootout, and the Saints are going to have to use Kamara if they want to keep up with Mahomes & co. and stay in the mix for the top seed in the NFC. There's no doubt this line is high. But early in the season, Kamara was routinely scoring 22+ with Brees at the helm. Take advantage of this line, because Kamara lines will probably jump if Brees looks like himself on Sunday.
Matt Ryan vs TB - 18 points - UNDER
Don't play Matt Ryan without Julio Jones. That is effectively a fantasy football law for me. Last week we recommended the under on Ryan in a very soft matchup vs LAC, noting that he was averaging 22.5 points per game with an active Julio and just 10.7 in games without Julio this year. Ryan responded... but putting up a paltry 7.2 points against LA. This week, Julio remains out, but the defensive matchup gets much, much tougher with the Tampa Bay Bucs. Ryan is skating on name value at this point, and until he proves he can adjust to life without #11 snagging contested catches regularly, you can feel good about taking the UNDER. Kenyan Drake vs PHI - 13.5 points - OVER
Drake had been solid ever since returning from his injury in week 10. He’s been over this 13.5 mark in 4 of the last 5 games, and has 5 TDs over his last 4 games! He’s getting a ton of redzone work, and with Chase Edmonds questionable or limited, it’s likely that Drake sees even more work than usual in the passing game (and remember...this is ppr scoring!) We’ve been consistently playing Drake OVER for the last few weeks, and he has yet to disappoint!
J.D. McKissic vs SEA - 13 points - UNDER
Antonio Gibson is doubtful this week, and we’re not expecting him to play, leaving McKissic as the lead back in Washington with a fairly decent matchup vs the Seahawks. Mckissic has been a PPR machine this year, trailing only Kamara in targets to the RB this year. The problem is that Alex Smith (king of the dump offs to RBs) is out this week, leaving Dwayne Haskins at QB. Will Haskins target McKissic 10 times? It could happen...but we’re betting against it.
So what do you think? Agree with some of our takes, and disagree with others? Enter YOUR picks on Prize Picks today!
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