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Prize Picks is our new favorite way to play daily fantasy football! Out of the fantasy playoffs? No problem! Set a lineup or two in Prize Picks and you're back in the game! Think Herbert and Carr are going to duel it off in an offensive shootout in prime time? Pick their OVER and win real money today! The Monday night football shootout caught us off guard, but in our Week 14 Sunday Slate Blog, we nailed 7/8 of our picks!
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Week 15 - Thursday Night Matchup
*Reminder - points are in PPR format!
Game Preview
The 7-6 Las Vegas Raiders are clinging to some rapidly-plummeting hopes since losing three of their last four games. They host the 4-9 Los Angeles Chargers, who escaped with a narrow 20-17 win over Atlanta last week. Here are a few things to keep in mind as you make your picks for this game:
As of publication time, the total points line for this game is set at 53.5, meaning the game is expected to be more of an offensive shootout.
The Raiders are three-point favorites at home, which would set an implied point total of about 28 for the Raiders and 25 for the Chargers.
These two teams met only about five weeks ago, with the Raiders winning 31-26 in Los Angeles. Las Vegas ran the ball very effectively and only needed 165 passing yards to seal the win - thanks in large part to short fields set up by long kick and punt returns.
Neither defense has been very effective in stopping opposing fantasy players. The Raiders are the 3rd-easiest matchup for fantasy RB and only middle-of-the-road against other positions (10th vs QBs, 11th vs WRs, 19th vs TEs). The Chargers are the 9th-easiest matchup for fantasy QBs. (They're also 19th against RBs, 18th against WRs, and 13th against TEs).
Derek Carr vs LAC - 20 points - UNDER (Jared)
The Chargers should be an easy matchup for Carr... right? We're not so sure. As noted above, Carr only had to throw for 165 yards in their last meeting for just 13 fantasy points. If the Raiders can run effectively, they'll be more than willing to do it. Carr is also going to be without rookie speedster Henry Ruggs after the wide receiver was placed on the COVID list. At first glance, Ruggs hasn't been that productive this year. But his speed has generally opened the field up for Carr's other options by taking a corner and/or safety deep with him even when he's merely a decoy. Without Ruggs and with RB Josh Jacobs presumably playing, we see a strong possibility that Las Vegas grinds out the run game first and foremost this week.
Austin Ekeler @ LV - 19.5 points - OVER (Trent)
Ekeler has been phenomenal since returning from injury 3 weeks ago, averaging 19.5 points per game! In typical Austin Ekeler style, he's been the most dangerous through the air, averaging 11 targets per game since his return. With Keenan Allen possibly out, or at least hampered with a lingering injury, I think we will definitely see Ekeler see double-digit targets in this matchup. Las Vegas can be exposed by running backs (3rd worst in the league), and they even let up 16.4 points to Kalen Ballage (the Chargers RB4) in their week 9 matchup when Ekeler was out.
Nelson Agholor vs LAC - 12 points - OVER (Trent)
Agholor has had a surprisingly good year this year and is one of the best deep threats in the NFL today (wow, that's weird to say). Typically the Raiders have Agholor and Ruggs both gunning deep, but this week Ruggs is out on the covid list, leaving Agholor as the only deep threat! The RB's, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow will see the short passes, but Carr has to look Agholor's way at least a few times on deep bombs. If Agholor comes down with just one of those deep TD balls, then he's easily over this line of 12. Over the last four weeks, Agholor has actually seen an increase in targets, averaging about 9 targets per game, so there is a chance he hits this line even without a deep TD!
Hunter Renfrow vs LAC - 9.5 points - UNDER (Jared)
The absence of Ruggs opens up some targets for other receivers. But our concern is that without Ruggs as a burner threat over the top, the Chargers will be able to focus more on stopping the short passing game. LA has one of the game's best slot cornerbacks in Chris Harris, who is finally back on the field after injuries. Renfrow plays about two-thirds of his snaps out of the slot. Despite a pretty low 9.5-point line, this matchup just isn't that great for Renfrow, who only has two TDs on the season and probably needs at least nine targets or a TD this week to crack 9.5.
Mike Williams (11.5) & Keenan Allen (20)
Our projections for these two totally depend on how healthy Keenan Allen is when game time rolls around. If Allen is 100%, then we love his over, and Mike Williams under. If Allen is sidelined, or even limited from his injury, then I like his under and Williams over. We're likely not entering these two into any prize picks unless we hear something about Allen's health before game time!
So what do you think? Agree with some of our takes, and disagree with others? Enter YOUR picks on Prize Picks today!
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